What If You Only Had a 5% Chance?

BYU plays Oklahoma this weekend in Provo and ESPN Analytics only gives BYU a 5% chance to pull out the win. It makes sense, BYU is 5-5 and Oklahoma is 8-2 and #14 in the nation, but 5%? Thats incredibly slim. That’s like the chances of BYU winning the national championship soon. Its not happening. But anything can happen at LaVell Edwards Stadium against a top 15 team right?

BYU vs Iowa State Game Recap

BYU got their wheels blown off. To make matters worse, it was at home, and at night, dispelling those conspiracy theorists that thought BYU was like a vampire who played better at night and at home. That wasn’t the case on Saturday. BYU lost 45-13.

Game Play by Play

Iowa State jumped out to a 10-0 lead thanks to an opening INT on the first offensive play of the game for BYU, and then a fumbled kickoff return by BYU. It was a nightmare start for BYU. This is starting to become a really bad trend. The Cougars have not started games well at all. BYU did score a TD on their next drive pulling BYU within 3 points, 10-7. But that was the closest the Cougars ever got.

BYU Offense Recap

Again, BYU’s offense looked horrible. Retzlaff did throw 2 INTs, which didn’t help, but the offensive line was bad. Iowa State got so much pressure on Retzlaff and the run game couldn’t get going at all. There were also some questionable play calls. I sound like a broke record at this point, but there needs to be some change on the offensive side of the ball.

BYU Defense Recap

On the defense, BYU just didn’t look fast enough. Iowa State’s RBs were juking out and cutting back and forth all over the BYU defense. BYU couldn’t tackle and didn’t make any plays. Iowa State’s receivers also got down the field behind BYU’s corners and safeties for some big plays. This worried me, because we hadn’t really seen a lot of that lately, but Iowa State exposed BYU.

BYU vs #14 Oklahoma Game Preview

Enough of last week, lets look forward to this week’s game, and man, its a doozy. BYU takes on #14 Oklahoma at LaVell Edwards Stadium. The spread opened with BYU as a 24.5 point underdog. That is the second largest spread for BYU at home! The first largest was against USC in 2004 when Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush came to Provo. That was also the same year that USC went on to win the national championship. The game was tied at the end of the 1st quarter and BYU actually scored first to make it 3-0 but USC took over, winning the game 42-10.

Oklahoma Preview

Oklahoma has never been to Utah. This is their first ever trip, and maybe their only ever trip with them going to the SEC next year. For the football series, BYU has actually never lost to Oklahoma. They are 2-0 all time versus Oklahoma. BYU won in 1994, 31-6, and in 2009, 14-13. We probably all remember that game in Arlington in 2009. Sam Bradford got injured for the Sooners and then they missed a game winning field goal as time expired. It was a wild game.

Oklahoma Offense Preview

Dillon Gabriel is the Sooners QB and he is one of the best in the country. He transferred to Oklahoma after being with UCF for 3 years. This year for Oklahoma, he has been very good. He has 25 passing TDs and 5 INTs on the season. He also has 337 rushing yards and 11 rushing TDs. Gabriel is having his best year of his career in terms of passer rating. When someone has 36 total TDs and only 5 INTs, they are a pretty good player. Gabriel is going to be tough to stop. Gabriel can throw. He can run. He can do everything. BYU just has to slow him down. We wont be able to stop him, we just have to slow him down. Their RB, Tawee Walker isnt an amazing RB and only has 400 yards rushing, but he can pick up some much needed yards in short yard situations. Gabriel’s go to receiver is Drake Stoops. He’s the son of Oklahoma’s all time coaching wins, Bob Stoops. He knows football.

Oklahoma Defense Preview

On defense, Oklahoma isn’t as good, but they are a very stout group. Their rushing defense is 47th in the nation in yards allowed per game. Their passing defense is even worse at 89th in the nation in yards allowed per game. In case you were wondering, BYU actually has a better pass defense in terms of yards allowed per game. They are 76th in the nation. Ethan Downs, a junior, leads the team with 4.5 sacks. Hes a guy to look at for on the DL. Danny Stutsman, also a junior, leads the team in tackles. He flies everywhere and will be a big focus at the LB position. Billy Bowman Jr, is probably their best cover guy. He leads the team with INTs and PDs.

Oklahoma Stats and Prediction

Their offense is very good. Oklahoma is 35th in the nation in rushing yards per game thanks, in large part, to Gabriel and Walker who do a lot of read options. But their bread and butter is their passing offense. Oklahoma ranks 7th in the nation in passing yards per game. Gabriel has a big deal with that too. He has a cannon for an arm. He has to be the focal point for BYU. Meanwhile, I expect BYU to throw, and I mean deep. BYU should try to throw the ball downfield. We have the receivers to do it in Lassiter, Roberts, and Hill. Our defensive strength matches up with Oklahoma’s offensive strength in passing. So that will be a huge battle in who wins this game. That is my key matchup, Oklahoma’s passing game vs BYU’s passing defense.

BYU has not looked good for 3 straight weeks now. BYU hasn’t scored more than 13 points in the last 3 games. The pressure is on Oklahoma in this game. Just like BYU basketball, the football team has their turn and takes down a top 20 team in the nation at home. I think BYU forces a few turnovers, converts on 3rd down, and pulls out a thriller of a game, 31-28.

BYU Basketball Recap and Preview

BYU took on #17 San Diego State in Provo and came away with a huge win, 74-65. 5 players were in double figures with Dallin Hall leading the way with 18 points. Hall was electric. He was creating opportunities and hit 4 3 pointers. He was the leader of the game and MVP for sure. The other 4 players in double figures were Fouss, Johnson, Saunders, and Robinson. The whole BYU team was fighting and gritty. It was a super fun game to watch.

On Monday, the college basketball AP poll came out and BYU had 32 votes, good enough for 32nd in the nation. They are on the outside looking in for the top 25. They have 2 games this week. The first is tonight, against SE Louisiana. BYU is home and favored by 28 points. It will be interesting to see if they have the same energy and fight as last game. The second game is on Saturday, at home, against Morgan St. Expect BYU to win by 20+ as well.

BYU has a chance to do something special and put up some big fights in conference play if they continue to play with the same energy, grit, and chemistry they showed in the game against San Diego State.

BYU Misc.

If you want to see a really cool video about Eddie Heckard, one of our better corners, who transferred from Weber State, check this video out. He is a great guy, who came to love football.

Big 12 Conference Update

Texas escaped against TCU, winning 29-26. UCF took the wheels off of Oklahoma State in a big upset, 45-3. Texas Tech upset Kansas, 16-13. Oklahoma beat West Virginia, 59-20. Kansas State blew out Baylor, 59-25. Cincinnati picked up their first win in the Big 12 defeating Houston, 24-14. Iowa State pummeled BYU, 45-13.

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