BYU split their last two games, beating UCF on Saturday by 6 and losing to #20 Arizona last night. BYU had the more talented team against UCF and it was too much down the stretch. The opposite happened last night, Arizona had too much talent, and it was too much for BYU to overcome.
Game Recap vs UCF
BYU beat UCF by 6, 81-75. BYU was down 2 heading into halftime after the Knights made a huge run to end the half. With about 8 minutes left, BYU was down 3. Now this is where the UCF and Arizona games were different. BYU turned it on in the last 8 minutes. BYU hit everything. They had layups, 4 three pointers fall, and hit their FTs, kinda. It was surprising for me! They did this on the road and showed that they had the better team.
Team Stats
If you can shoot 50% overall from the field, 40% from 3, and 90% from the FT line, youre either a really good player or a really good team. Against UCF, BYU sho 48% overall from the field, 44% from 3, and 58% from the FT line. They were close to 50% overall from the field but that FT percentage is awful. Still, BYU made their shots down the stretch and UCF didnt. BYU played great defense, by the way. They buckled down and communicated really well in those last 8 minutes of the game. BYU also outrebounded UCF by 6.
Box Score
The biggest contributors were Saunders and Mag. They made a huge impact on this game. Mag was the MVP of the game. He was playing great defense and scored 19 points with 3 three pointers. Saunders had a career high 6 three pointers helping him to 22 points. Knell also was on fire from deep. He had 15 points on 4 three pointers.
BYU played great defense in the second half. The biggest difference was the bench. UCF only had 6 bench points. BYU had 12. Not a huge difference, but enough to help BYU win the game. Fouss was a big drive in this.
Game Recap vs #20 Arizona
Fast forward to last night and it was the complete opposite game of what we saw against UCF. The first half of this game was probably one of the more back and forth, exciting games I have watched this season. The teams went to halftime tied at 41. With about 7 minutes left, Arizona made their push thanks to BYU having multiple turnovers, taking bad shots, and not hitting their open shots. BYU was down 3 at the time, but in the next two minutes, Arizona pushed their lead to 8 and never looked back. BYU could not make their shots, forced bad shots, and had multiple turnovers, the complete opposite of what we saw vs UCF.
Team Stats
Talking about the 50/40/90 that we talked about before with UCF, Arizona shot 49% from the field, 38% from 3, and 88% from the FT line. Pretty dang close to the 50/40/90 stat line. Thats how you know youre playing a good team with talent, and sometimes, you cant do anything to stop it. BYU has outrebounded almost every oponnent in the Big 12, but not last night. Arizona outrebounded BYU by 15. That is not a recipe for success. When defense and rebounding are failing, its hard to win games.
BYU shot 42% from the field, 29% from 3, and 57% from the FT line. I was honestly shocked to see how much we couldnt hit a 3 in this game, especially being at home. We only had a couple of spurts where we hit a couple of 3s in a row, but other than that, it was quite dead. In my opinion, BYU also forced a lot of 3s that didnt need to be taken, particularly from Demin. He shot 2-9 from 3, thats not great, and he has never shot that many 3s in a game before.
Box Score
Last week I talked about how important it was to contain Caleb Love. He was their star player. He had 18 points with 4 threes. That just cant happen. BYU played zone for most of this game and Arizona just picked it apart. They had guys cutting, made the extra pass, and just knew exactly how to play offense against BYU’s zone. Arizona’s starting forward, Awaka, was a menace on the boards. He was active and strong and pulled down 9 rebounds. Not to mention Caleb Love with 6 rebounds. A 6’4 guard cannot have 6 rebounds.
Probably the difference in the game was when Arizona made the adjustment to bring in Henri Veesaar. He didnt start the game but played a good portion of it after being substituted in. He is a 7 foot Center and was eating Fouss alive as the two backup big men battled. Fouss is 6’6 and, to me, has not been as dominant, active, or relentless this year. He looks slow and lethargic this year. So when Fouss came in with Veesaar as the two big men backups came in, it was no match. Veesar ended up with 6 rebounds and 17 points. Fouss had 7 rebounds and 6 points.
On the BYU side, Demin led the way with 16 points. He was aggressive from the start in this game. Saunders was not himself though. He only had 11 points and Arizona seemed to really focus on stopping him and it forced Demin to force and sometimes take bad shots. Luckily, BYU was still in thanks to Dallin Hall. We havent said that much this year, after he was the main guy last year. He had 11 points and 6 assists off the bench. Baker also helped BYU with 8 points.
Game Preview vs Cincinnati
The next 3 games are super important for BYU in order for them to get back on the right side of the March Madness bubble. With the loss to Arizona, it doesnt hurt them much, but it was a chance for them to solidify themselves in the tournament. The next 3 games are super important. If BYU can go 3-0 or 2-1 in the next 3 games, they will be back on the right side of the bubble with games against #16 Kansas and #20 Arizona up next, to try and solidify themselves in the tournament. The next 3 games before playing Kansas and Arizona are @ Cincinnati, @ West Virginia, and home vs Kansas St.
Cincinnati is on Saturday at 4pm MT on ESPN2. This game is going to be a tough game since it is on the road for BYU. BYU and Cincinnati played just about 2 weeks ago in Provo with BYU winning by 28. I am sure that Cincinnati is going to want their revenge and I am not banking on BYU shooting 63% from 3 again.
Since BYU and Cincinnati last played almost 2 weeks ago, Cincy has lost to Utah, West Virginia, and play UCF tonight in Orlando. They are currently on a 4 game losing streak and it could be 5 depending on how they do tonight vs UCF.
Player Preview
We dont have much to talk about since we just talked about them two weeks ago, but in Cincy’s most recent loss to West Virginia, Cincy did not shoot the ball well. We was similar to what we saw when they come to Provo and this game was at home for Cincy against West Virignia. Simply speaking, Cincinnati is not a great defensive team lately. During their 4 game losing streak, every team has scored more than 63 points.
Right now, its hard to pinpoint where Cincinnati is good at on offense. In their most recent game, they only scored 50 points and had 1 player in double digits. They just havent played great lately. Luckily for them, playing at home can help remedy that. Its an extra added defense. BYU has to make shots to win this game. They cant have a 30% shooting game. They also have to rebound. Cincinnati is a pretty good rebounding team. I expect Cincinnati to make shots and be a lot more comfortable at home on offense too so BYU will have to limit second chances.
Prediction
Right now, ESPN Analytics has Cincinnati favored this game. They gave Cincy a 52% chance to win an BYU a 48% chance. Its basically a pick them game. I am sure that BYU will be favored in this game once the lines come out. But BYU cant take Cincinnati lightly. They are able to beat to BYU. Pedal to the metal on the road. I think BYU wins this game by 4, 73-69.
Game Preview vs West Virginia
I am a little more scared about this game because West Virginia has been surprisingly good this year, although they did just lose their second leading scorer and senior leader in Tucker Devries. That could have a huge impact on how they do the rest of the season. They play TCU tonight and are currently underdogs on the road even though they have a better Big 12 record. That shows the value that Devries loss brings.
Player Preview
West Virginia still has Javon Small. He is averaging 19 points a game. In their most recent win over Cincinnati, he had 19 points and 9 assists. He is the heart and soul of this team, especially with Devries out. BYU has to focus on Small in order to win this game. Small is a bonafide driver. He makes his living there in the lane and can draw a fall or pass it off. So BYU has to communicate and help on defense, something they havent been great at.
Prediction
ESPN Analytics actually disagrees with me. They think the Cincinnati game is going to be harder as they give the Cougs at 49% chance to win. Basically another toss up game. This will be a hard game because it is on the road against one of the best players in the Big 12. Small can single handedly carry this Mountaineers team to victory, so BYU has to be ready to play and make their shots. In order for that to happen, they have to rebound the ball and get stops.
I am interested to see how their energy is to begin this game. It could be a huge indication of how this game goes. Second road games in a row are hard. I still think BYU pulls this out, but just barely. I think Small misses a shot at the buzzer as BYU wins, 72-70.
