This feels like a dream, lets be honest with ourselves. BYU is #11 in the country, has the 13th best odds to make the college football playoff, and are currently tied for 1st in the Big 12 conference. They are even being projected by some to be the #4 seed, Big 12 conference winner, in the college football playoff.
We will get to that in a second, but no one saw this coming, at least no one in the media. I am sure this football team and Kalani Sitake did, though. It feels like BYU is just dancing around, enjoying their time, and eventually it will hit midnight and it will all be over. But we havent seen that from this time yet. They have stood up at every opportunity to fold and become like BYU teams of the past.
Playoff Scenarios
Heather Dinch of ESPN currently has a pretty fun, from a BYU perspective, projection of her playoff bracket. She has the Cougars at #4 and winning the Big 12. They would play the winner of #5 Texas and #12 Boise St. For BYU to play either Texas or Boise St in the college football playoff would be so fun and seriously madness. Here’s a little clip of her bracket projection.
BYU also jumped up to #9 in the ESPN Power Rankings ahead of teams like Iowa St, Tennessee, Notre Dame, and LSU. Its getting real for BYU and their fans. We can almost taste it. We just have to keep going because the next two games are going to say a lot about BYU.
How Can BYU Make It or Not Make It?
ESPN gives BYU a 42% chance to make the playoff. There’s a lot of different scenarios that could make this happen. What if BYU goes undefeated but loses in the Big 12 championship game? Would they still make it? I think so. What if they have 1 loss to UCF or Utah or Arizona St and then lose the Big 12 championship game to have 2 overall losses? Would they still make it? I dont think so, BYU would need to win the Big 12 championship game and avoid having 2 overall losses. Its a tough life when youre not in the Big Ten or SEC.
So BYU can afford to have one loss, but then will need to win the Big 12 championship game. Looking at the other Big 12 teams with 1 loss, BYU could still get into the championship game with 1 conference loss. Iowa St plays 1 loss Texas Tech, 1 loss Cincinnati, @Utah, and 1 loss #16 ranked Kansas St still. One loss will surely happen between those tough games.
Kansas St has one loss already but doesn’t play anyone hard till #10 Iowa St at the end of the season. Texas Tech has 1 loss only but has to play TCU, Iowa St, and Colorado so they most likely will have multiple losses, so they are out. Cincinnati has 1 loss only but has to play Colorado, #10 Iowa St, and #16 Kansas St, they most likely will also have multiple losses and will be out. Lastly, Colorado has only 1 loss but dont play anyone crazy hard, they have Texas Tech, Cincinnati, and Utah to worry about. So they could be in.
Who Could BYU Be Battling In Conference?
So looking at potential 1 loss teams who could battle for the 2 being selected for the Big 12 championship game are Iowa St, Kansas St, BYU, and Colorado. I think it will come down to these 4 teams. Iowa St has a tough schedule though and Kansas St and Iowa St play each other the last game of the season.
ESPN projects Iowa St to go undefeated, BYU to lose 1 conference game, Kansas St to lose 2 conference games, and Colorado to lose 1 conference game. If that is the case, then BYU and Colorado would be tied for second with the nod going to BYU because they would have a better overall record. Colorado would finish 10-2 and BYU would finish 11-1. Then it would be welcome to the Big 12 championship game against Iowa St!
Of course these are all projections, but some fun projections as BYU fans try to figure out and make sense of this amazing season so far! But now, lets get back to reality, before any of that can happen, BYU has to win on Saturday.
Game Recap vs Oklahoma St
This was an amazing game. I dont want to go into too much detail, since we know a lot about this game already, but BYU came out the victors after scoring a game winning touchdown with 10 seconds left. On that final drive, Retzlaff threw a beautiful ball to Chase Roberts on 4th and 7 to extend the drive. Retzlaff then scrambled for almost 30 yards to set BYU up at the Oklahoma St’s 35 yard line.
At this point, I started to believe that BYU could actually do this. Retzlaff then found Darius Lassiter for a 35 yard touchdown with 10 seconds left, Lassiter broke 2 tackles to reach the end zone. It was amazing! Retzlaff led a perfect drive to go and set this up.
Stats
Retzlaff threw for 218 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs. Not his best game at all, but he leads important drives when they are needed. He did it in the Baylor, SMU, and now Oklahoma St games. The MVP of the game was LJ Martin, again. He had 20 carries for 120 yards and 2 TDs. Thats 6 yards per carry and he had a long run of 24 yards. He was so good and a much needed boost to the offense.
Defensively, BYU forced 2 interceptions and had only 1 sack and 3 tackles for loss. The defense definitely had a down game compared to what we have seen this season. BYU also allowed 269 rushing yards to the Cowboys. They have to definitely clean that up for the rest of the season. BYU was not getting as much pressure in the backfield as they had before.
Game Preview vs UCF
BYU’s next two games are going to be hard. I think they will be the two hardest games of the season. You could argue that @ Arizona St in the second to last game of the season could also be one of BYU’s hardest remaining games but the craziness and rivalry with Utah makes that game harder I think. BYU will have a BYE week after this weeks game against UCF to prepare for Utah though.
Offense
Going into the season, there was a lot of excitement about UCF. KJJefferson, who transferred from Arkansas, and who BYU has played twice, was the starter. He has since been benched after losing the last two games. Hes had some injuries this year, but he has just not played well. He was seen as an ideal fit with head coach and offensive guru Gus Malzahn who used to be at Auburn, but has since fallen from grace a little bit. He hasnt played in the last two games.
Against Cincinnati, UCF started EJ Colson, a highly rated true freshman. But after doing just 1 drive and only completing one pass for -6 yards, he was benched and Jacurri Brown, a dual threat QB, was put in his place. He played pretty well throwing for 207 yards and 1 TD with 0 ints, while also running 16 times for 84 yards. UCF lost, though.
In Jacurri Browns first start of the season, UCF took #9 Iowa St to the wire. Brown finished with 62 yards passing, (yes, im serious), 0 TDs, and 2 INTs. But he had 13 rushing attempts for 154 yards and 2 TDs. Im talking about the QB here. Their running back, RJ Harvey, was even better. He had 196 rushing yards and 2 TDs. UCF threw for 62 total passing yards but had 354 rushing yards. If theres one thing that BYU needs to focus on, its the running game. BYU gave up 269 rushing yards to Oklahoma St, so BYU has to contain the rushing attack of UCF.
Defense
Luckily, for BYU, UCFs defense isnt very good. They gave up 530 total yards to Iowa St last week, 274 passing yards and 256 rushing yards. BYU should be able to have their way on offense against this defense. I expect a good dose of the run and pass game. Especially with LJ Martin showing out last week. The one area that UCF is pretty good in, is their defensive line. Their defensive line is good at getting to the QB and getting sacks. BYUs offensive line will have to limit that on passing plays for BYU to win this game.
Prediction
This game is super tricky. The line opened up with BYU favored by 1. The line has since switched over to UCF and has them favored by 2. I dont think BYU will look ahead to the Utah game since there is a BYE week before that game. I also dont think BYU will be too overconfident. If anything, the fact that you are an underdog as the #11 team in the country playing a 3-4 team, should tell you all you need to know. You should be mad and feeling like you arent getting the respect you should. This is BYU’s hardest game according to ESPN Analytics. ESPN Analytics only gives BYU a 45.4% chance of winning the game.
I wouldnt be surprised if BYU loses this game. They are struggling against the run on defense and the team is coming off their worst performance on the season. But this team feels different. There is something different about them. They are gritty and show a ton of fight. Right when you count them out and think BYU is going to BYU, the defense comes up with a play or Retzlaff leads the offense down the field for a game winning score.
I think its going to take something like that in the final minute or two to win this game. Buckle up, everyone, the cardiac Cougars are going to back this week for two weeks in a row. It will not hit midnight just yet for the Cougars. BYU is going to win, 35-34.
