I am back! After two weeks of being MIA, I am back! We welcomed home our little girl, so I had a few weeks of paternity leave. I am back working and in the groove of things and able to bring my newsletter back this week.

We have a ton to get to. BYU is ranked #17 in the nation, tied for 1st in the Big 12 conference, and have now been projected by a couple of media networks (CBS Sports, On3) to be the champion of the Big 12 and #4 seed in the college football playoff.

Game Recaps

Before we dive into all of that, lets recap the past couple of weeks. Since my last newsletter, BYU defeated Wyoming 34-14, destroyed #13 Kansas St 38-9, and went on the road to get their first Big 12 road win beating Baylor 34-28.

I want to talk about the most recent game against Baylor, since thats the most recent work of art. BYU became ranked after beating #13 Kansas St, jumping into the poll at #22. BYU jumped out to a 21-0 lead with 3 minutes left in the first quarter. Retzlaff had a nice pass up the sideline to Miles Davis for a TD, a quick pass off of motion to Chase Roberts for another TD, and a 17 yard run for another TD. Retzlaff was a part of all 3 TDs. But BYU being BYU, didnt keep their foot on the pedal.

At halftime, BYU was up 31-14. But after halftime, BU was only able to muster a field goal the whole rest of the game. Baylor scored two touchdowns and cut it to within 6 with 10 minutes left in the 4th quarter.

After Baylor tied it, BYU had a punt, interception, and punt. Baylor got 3 chances to cut the lead or take the lead. But BYUs defense stepped up on all 3 of those drives. On the last 2 drives for Baylor, Baylor entered BYUs side of the field. The first drive, Baylor went for it on 4th down and BYU stopped them. On the second drive, Baylor thew an interception to end the game. BYU’s defense pulled through and was able to come up big. BYUs defense did it again.

Game Stats

Retzlaff had a pretty good game. I would give him a solid B. He needs to figure out his interceptions, but he had 218 passing yards, 53 rushing yards, 4 total TDs, and 2 INTs. He also led the team in rushing. Thats a little troubling, but BYU also had their top running back out in LJ Martin, and 2 offensive linemen were injured during this game.

Connor Pay has been ruled out for the next game against Arizona in a week and a half, but with a full 2 weeks of practice, the offensive line should get some good reps to be able to full go against Arizona. We are also supposed to get LJ Martin back for the Arizona game, so that is good.

The offense still doesnt look amazing to me. We look good, but not amazing. BYU’s run game needs to get better and Retzlaff needs to avoid turnovers. Against better teams, BYU cant always count on their defense. With that being said, Retzlaff and the offense does just find ways to score when they need it. They buckle up, hunker down, and are able to move the ball and score when needed. I just wish they did that every time they had the ball so we didnt all have to have heart attacks while we watched the games.

Big 12 Standings

In other news, BYU has a BYE this week, but have Arizona, October 12th, at LaVell Edwards Stadium at 2pm MT on FOX. This is a pretty big deal. BYU gets a prime time slot with its kickoff time and television network. Time for BYU to make another statement! Arizona is looking good. They are also undefeated in the Bug 12, although they have only played one game. They went on the road to Utah and beat the #10 Utes in Salt Lake City by 13. Arizona is looking dangerous, so this will be a huge game for BYU.

Some games for BYU fans to watch this weekend during their BYE are the other undefeated teams in Big 12 play. Texas Tech plays Arizona in Arizona Saturday night at 9pm MT on FOX. Both teams are undefeated in the Big 12. Texas Tech is 2-0 and Arizona is 1-0. #16 Iowa St plays Baylor in Iowa Saturday night on FOX at 5:30pm MT. Iowa St is 1-0. Lastly, West Virginia is playing on the road at Oklahoma St Saturday afternoon at 2pm MT on ESPN2. West Virginia is also 1-0. Colorado, who is also 2-0 in the Big 12, is also on their BYE.

Do We Believe the Hype?

The hype for BYU is building. But if you heard Kalani Sitake or any of the team talk about how they have been playing, youll see that they arent really paying attention to that. Throughout their statements, Sitake has said that each game is “statement” for BYU and that they are ready to prove to themselves that they are ready to take the next step. He has preached being hungry and humble to all of his players.

Its hard for me to get excited about BYU right now. But, we havent seen a season like this before. The new playoff structure allows for 12 teams to make the playoffs and adds a lot more excitement to teams like BYU and others who are having good seasons, starting to be ranked, and are rising up the rankings.

Playoff Structure

The 5 conference champions (4 P4 champions and highest ranked G5 champion) get automatic bids. Those 5 are then seeded based on where they are ranked. They other 7 teams are at large bids and are seeded based on where they are ranked. So in essence, BYU needs to finish the season either as a conference champion, or somewhere in the top 10-12. I say 10-12 because there could be some conference champions who pull upsets and aren’t ranked but get to go to the playoff because they won the conference championship or the highest ranked G5 champion may only be ranked 20th but they still get to go the playoff.

Those two teams would ultimately steal a bid from a team thats ranked 11th or 12. So its not necessarily the top 12 teams that get to the go to the playoff.

BYU’s Next Games Are Hard

But this is what adds excitement for BYU. BYU is only 7 spots away from being close to making the playoff and we arent even halfway through the season yet. And they are sitting at the top of the Big 12 and if they win the Big 12 then all of this nonsense rankings dont matter because they will go to the playoff automatically. So things are looking up for BYU! They have played really well. But BYU hasnt hit the hardest part of their schedule yet. These next 4 games are HARD.

• vs Arizona (1-0) (Arizona is currently ranked 26th in the nation. If they beat Texas Tech this weekend, they most likely will be in the top 25 for this BYU game in a week and a half)
• vs Oklahoma St (0-2) (They were one of the teams predicted to win the Big 12, but with 2 early losses in conference play, they dont look to be contending anymore. Still, playing a team that was predicted to possibly win the conference means they are still a good team)
• @ UCF (1-1) (Going on the road to a hostile environment like UCF is going to be hard. If they win these next couple of weeks leading up to this game, they will be right in the thick of the conference race.)
• @ #18 Utah (1-1) (BYU gets another BYE before this game, but going against your biggest rival on the road in a possible top 25 matchup will be insane.)

These next 4 games will make or break BYU’s season. If BYU can get out of there with only 1 or 2 losses, they will be right in the race for the conference championship game. Thats going to be hard, but the way that BYU is playing right now, its not impossible. In those 4 games, ESPN Analytics gives BYU a 66.3% chance to beat Arizona, 53.1% chance to beat Oklahoma St, 39.1% chance to beat UCF, and 45.6% chance to beat Utah. ESPN Analytics projects BYU to win only 2 of those games, with the Oklahoma St game being super close to BYU only winning 1 of these 4 games. This is going to be a brutal stretch.

Recap

This season has been so exciting for BYU! No one thought that we would be here. Being ranked #17 feels good and thats not even mentioning that we are 5-0 and undefeated. Vegas projected BYU to win 4.5 games this year. BYU has acheived that in their first 5 games. Now, BYU cant have what happened last year happen to them this year. BYU started 3-0 and then lost 5 consecutive games. These next 4 games are huge for BYU. And if they can win 2 or 3 of them, they will have a good shot at going to the conference championship game.

Thank you for reading! Please share with your family and friends! You can look at my previous posts here.