The Cougars found out their ranking last night as they dropped 5 spots to the #19 spot. They are above #24 Kansas St and #25 Colorado, but behind #18 Iowa St and #16 Arizona St. Its going to be a wild ride to the finish. All 4 Big 12 teams ranked in the top 25 have a shot at going to the Big 12 championship game.

BYU Conference Champ Game Odds

BYU lost on Saturday, 28-23, to Arizona St. It was a game BYU had to win to control their own destiny. A win meant they had a 98% chance to go to the Big 12 championship game. A loss and it was 42%. Now why is it so high? Because BYU holds the tiebreaker over Colorado, due to us beating Kansas St, and Colorado losing to Kansas St. But BYU also loses the tiebreaker to Iowa St because their conference opponents have a better win percentage. So its simple for BYU.

Iowa St has to lose to Kansas St, and then BYU is in to the conference championship game against Arizona St. Wouldn’t that be a fun rematch?! But BYU can also get in if Arizona St loses to Arizona. In this scenario, it would be BYU vs Iowa St in the championship game. So Iowa St or Arizona St have to lose this weekend in order for BYU to go to the Big 12 Conference Championship game.

The odds are actually pretty favorable for BYU according to ESPN Analytics. BYU is expected to beat Houston and has an 87% chance to win. Iowa St only has a 54% chance to Kansas St. Arizona St has a 72% chance to beat Arizona. So the most realistic shot is that Iowa St loses to Kansas St. But, Iowa St is at home, which should help them.

Arizona St has a favorable matchup against Arizona, but, like BYU fans know, a rivalry game can turn into anything. Especially when you are on the road like Arizona St. They will have to travel, albeit not very far, from Tempe to Tucson. Iowa St has a 31% chance to win the conference. Arizona St has a 30% chance to win the conference. BYU has a 26% chance. Those 3 are the highest percentages among teams.

The Arizona St vs Arizona game will start first, at 1:30pm MT, on Saturday. Then the Kansas St vs Iowa St game will kickoff at 5:30pm MT. Then the Houston vs BYU game will kickoff at 8:15pm MT. We will for sure know if Arizona St has lost by the time the BYU game kicks off but we may not know the end of the Kansas St vs Iowa St game as kickoff rolls around. That will have to be a game that we watch and track as the BYU game starts. I think its pretty smart to have the games all kickoff right after each other consecutively. It makes for a pretty fun Saturday.

Game Recap vs #21 Arizona St

Speaking of the BYU, the Arizona St game was frustrating. For the third week in a row, BYU looked nonexistent in the first half. The first time this happened, BYU was down 11 to Utah and came alive in the second half to sneak by. The second time it happened, BYU was tied with Kansas at halftime but couldnt ever find the groove in the second half and lost. The third time this happened, it was a little too much to overcome.

BYU was down by 18 at halftime and lost by 5. BYU was cruising down the field at the end of the game and looked like they were going to go down and score a touchdown to take the lead. I dont know if it was Retzlaffs fault or Lassiters fault, but Retzlaff threw a slant that sailed over Lassiter and was picked off. But it was the same theme we had saw. Down too much, couldnt afford a mistake and had to play perfect in order to win.

Arizona St had to run out the clock. But they did it in such a weird way. They kept wasting time running backwards in order to waste more time than just a normal kneel. It was 4th down and the QB ran back and was wasting time and ended up throwing the ball away super high and far in hopes of wasting more time. The game looked like it ended and the fans stormed the field.

Except, there was 1 second left when the ball landed. The refs reviewed it and put 1 second back on the clock. They had to usher everyone back to their seats and on the sidelines to resume play. It took almost 15 minutes to get handled.

After that happened, BYU had the ball at midfield with a chance for a hail mary! Retzlaff threw it up and it was caught! But Roberts was at the 4 yard line and not in the end zone. Retzlaff threw the ball just short. Game over. It was a CRAZY ending. But BYU tried to come back from a huge deficit and it didnt work. They need to play a full game. They havent done that for about a month now!

BYU Offense

Retzlaff had an okay game. He looked really good on passes but so off on others. He was not on the same page as his receivers. And honestly, the receivers didnt give a lot of effort in trying to catch balls. Lassiter had a couple of drops. Retzlaff threw a pass down the sideline to Phillips who was open on the last drive of the game for BYU and Phillips didnt even try to dive or lay out to catch it. Retzlaff had 346 passing yards but 2 INTs and 1 TD.

I said this in my last post, last week, but not using LJ Martin has KILLED us. the run game wasnt anything special against Arizona St, in fact, it might have been our worst run game of the season. But LJ Martin had 9 carries for 42 yards. Thats 4.7 yards per carry! How does a guy not get the ball more than 9 carries when youre averaging 4.7 yards per carry. I think Roderick abandoned the run too early and it hurt BYU. Roberts and Lassiter both had over 100 yards receiving. But Lassiter had a couple of killer drops, which has started to be a theme lately for him.

BYU Defense

The defense was nothing special in the first half but they only held Arizona St to 7 points in the second half. Thats pretty good. Leavitt didnt have an amazing game, which was good by BYU, but Skattebo was killing BYU. BYU could not tackle this guy to save their lives. He had 28 carries for 147 yards and 3 TDs. Jordyn Tyson also had a good receiving game. He had 9 receptions for 125 yards. The best part about possibly playing them again in the conference championship is that it favors the defense. They will know what to expect and how to handle these guys more.

Game Preview vs Houston

Now lets look to this Saturday. Its at 8:15pm MT. All of the what ifs and who we need to lose will have played before. BYU will know if they need to win or not to go to the conference championship, for the most part, by kickoff. The Kansas St vs Iowa St game may not be over yet, but they will have a good idea. Houstons best win of the season was beating #17 Kansas St. The game was at home for Houston, but they did still win. Houston also beat Utah and TCU and they only lost to #15 Oklahoma, at the time, by 4.

But Houston has also lost to Cincinnati, Arizona, and Baylor. Teams that arent contending right now. So they are a little bit of a mixed bag. Houston did just fire their OC and will have a new OC this week against BYU. QB coach has taken over the playcalling duties and will be the OC.

Houston Offense

Zeon Chriss has started the last 3 games for Houston at QB and has shown some flashes, but overall, not been that great. In those 3 games he has 3 total (passing and rushing) TDs and 4 INTs. He really likes to run the ball. Thats where he is really good. Houston also likes to use a mix of two RBs. Each is nothing amazing, but they can fight for some hard yards and are quick. Sanford is a freshman who has shown good flashes of running the ball well. Receiving wise, nothing too crazy as they dont pass the ball a ton. Houston likes to run the ball. BYU has to focus on the run with Houston.

Houston Defense

The defense is nothing scary either but they do have some playmakers that BYU has to watch out for. Michael Batton is a LB who leads the team in tackles and is second in sacks. Defensive lineman Keith Cooper Jr will also have to be watched. He is tops in sacks and 6th in tackles. The strong point of Houston is their DL and LB groups. The S and CB look to be a little weak. I expect BYU to pass on this team and often. Play action will have to be key to keep the DL and LBs moving. BYU will also have to protect Retzlaff. Houston has been able to get pressure on the QB quite often.

Prediction

I expect BYU to win this game. BYU should definitely win this game as its home, late at night, and the crowd will be rocking, especially if Arizona St and/or Iowa St lose beforehand. Its also senior night for the seniors who are leaving. i expect them to come out and play aggressive and ready. BYU is tired of hearing how they have only played half of games the last 3 weeks. I expect them to come out with some energy for this home game. BYU wins by 10-14. I am going to say 27-13.

BYU Basketball Game Preview

The new rankings came out for college basketball on Monday and BYU is 1 spot off of the top 25, coming in at #26. BYU gets to prove that they are worthy of the top 25 this week. They are playing in a tournament in San Diego over Thanksgiving. Their first game will be against top 25 team Ole Miss at 3:30pm MT on Thursday, Thanksgiving.

The Rebels are ranked #23 and just reentered the top 25 after being out of it for a week. BYU will then take on either #13 Purdue or NC State, depending on who wins and loses their games. Its a great chance for BYU! They will either play two top 25 teams or a top 25 team and team that went to the Final Four last year!

Ole Miss hasnt played anyone of note, other than Colorado St, who the Rebels beat by 15. According to ESPN Analytics, BYU has a 60% chance to beat Ole Miss. Ole Miss is led by 4 guys who are all averaging double digit points. The main man is Sean Pedulla. He is a senior and a transfer from Virginia Tech. He shoots a lot of 3s a game and has a pretty good percentage at 39%. Pedulla is also a good FT shooter. He isnt a great playmaker and mainly has focused on scoring with Ole Miss. The Rebels are very guard dominant. BYU will have to communicate and play better perimeter defense if they want to win this game.

If BYU wins, they will talk on the winner of NC State vs Purdue on Friday. Both teams have looked good. NC State is undefeated but havent played anyone of note. The Wolfpack are led by Taylor and Hill. Two guards that dont really shoot the ball well from 3, but are big slashers. They like to drive the ball and draw fouls.

Purdue is a three headed monster. But their man guy is F Kauffman-Renn who averages 18 points per game and is a pretty good rebounder. He scares me if BYU doesnt have Keita for this game. He could dominate the paint. The other stars are Gs Loyer and Smith. Both shoot the ball well from 3 and compliment Kauffman-Renn. Purdue would be BYU’s toughest test, I believe.