These last two games for BYU, they were both favored in, and they both won. But man, each game had multiple chances for heart attacks. BYU, though, is 6-5 now in the Big 12, won 2 in a row and 4 of their last 5, and are 6th in the conference standings behind Iowa St, Houston, Baylor, Texas Tech, and Kansas.
Game Recap vs Kansas St
BYU took on Kansas St last Saturday in Provo, coming away with the win, 72-66. This game came down to the wire. Kansas St would not go away. BYU led by as many as 17 points but the Wildcats trimmed the lead to 2 with 1 minute left. Kansas St made a huge 3 to cut the lead to 2. BYU called a timeout and set up a play for Jaxon Robinson. He came off two screens and nailed a 3 pointer, the dagger for BYU.
Team Stats
BYU shot 43% from the field and 32% from 3. Both okay, not great, numbers. BYU was actually out-rebounded by 8 but only had 7 turnovers compared to Kansas St’s 16. I said that if BYU could force turnovers and turn them into points and shoot a good percentage from 3, they could win this. Well BYU did okay with turning turnovers into points with 14 and they shot an okay percentage from 3 at 32%. But both of these were key to winning the game. BYU didn’t have a bad shooting night and they were able to score off of turnovers.
Box Score
BYU had 5 guys with double digit points. Fouss led the team again, with 14, Robinson had 12, Johnson had 12, Waterman had 11, and Knell had 10. One of the biggest changes in the last two games is that Knell has started the last two games for BYU and Robinson has been coming off the bench. Coach Pope said that he, Robinson, and Knell all talked and said that it would be better for Knell to start. Really, Knell needs to start because it helps him to get going a lot quicker. He had 10 points against Kansas St and 17 against UCF in the past two games since returning to the starting lineup.
Game Recap vs UCF
I possibly witnessed the greatest 2 minute span I have ever watched. BYU came away with the win, 90-88, but in the last two minutes of the game, UCF scored 19 points. I am not joking. In comparison, BYU scored 10 points.
At the 2 minute mark, BYU was ahead by 11 points. UCF started a full court press and started fouling. Now this has been a huge weakness for this team, both the full court press and FT shooting, but in these last two minutes, BYU only had 1 turnover due to the press and only missed 2 FTs, while making 10. All 10 points in the last 2 minutes were FTs for BYU. But UCF hit 4 3s with a couple of other drives and mid range shots and a FT. It was nuts. UCF could not miss.
If UCF started the press and fouling at maybe the 2:30 mark or 3:00 mark left in the half, BYU would probably have lost or gone into OT.
Team Stats
UCF never gave up. They were hitting unbelievable shots and could not miss. They shot 51% overall and 27% from 3. I was honestly pretty shocked at how poorly they shot the 3 and then were lights out in the last 2 minutes. It was like the light got turned on and they turned into another team. BYU shot 45% overall and 35% from 3. BYU out-rebounded UCF, but had a ton of turnovers with 17 total. UCF had 27 points off of turnovers. They capitalized on BYUs turnovers and it almost cost BYU the game.
Box Score
But BYU hung on, thanks to 4 Cougars being in double digits for points. Robinson led the way with 21, Knell had 17, Waterman had 17, and Hall had 10. Knell especially really showed out this game. He was aggressive on offense and was really working his way to draw some fouls. Knell has been off on his 3 point shooting lately, though. He only shot 1-5 against UCF.
Game Preview vs Oklahoma St
BYU travels to Sillwater to take on Oklahoma St this Saturday on ESPN+ at 12:00PM. ESPN Analytics has BYU at a 79% chance to win this game. I think thats about right. Oklahoma St hasnt been great this year in conference. They did beat Kansas St and West Virginia in Stillwater but those are their only two conference wins. Its hard to win on the road though, so BYU is in for a tough test against Oklahoma St.
Player Preview
Oklahoma St has 2 mian guys that really control the game. Those guys are Javon Small and John Michael Wright. Small is a guard who is averaging 14 points a game with 5 rebounds and 5 assists as well. Small also shoots the 3 point ball pretty well. He is shooting 39% this year. He led the team in scoring in their most recent game against Oklahoma, with 17.
Wright has turned it on the last 6 games or so. He is averaging double digits in all of his last 6 games. He’s a little low this year in 3 point percentage at 33%, but he can occasionally knock down a 3 pointer. He has become a much more of a driver and slasher type of player.
Prediction
The Cowboys only have 2 wins in conference and are currently last in the conference at 2-9. But BYU shouldn’t overlook Oklahoma St. They have beat West Virginia and Kansas St at home. They can easily beat BYU if they knock down their shots. For BYU to win this game, they have to limit their fouls, rebound, and not have a ton of turnovers. Oklahoma St is pretty good at turning turnovers into points and getting to the foul line. BYU has to limit that. I think BYU wins this game by 7 and moves to 7-5 in conference play.
Game Preview vs #12 Baylor
On Tuesday, one of the biggest remaining games for BYU will be against #12 Baylor, in Provo. That game will be at 7:00pm on ESPN. BYU played Baylor in Waco earlier in the year with the Cougars losing by 9, 72-81. Baylor shot really well from 3 going 44% from 3 in that game. They also only had 5 turnovers compared to BYUs 14 and 18 points off turnovers compared to BYUs 4. Baylor is a good team. But having this game in Provo and having a chance for revenge will be huge.
Player Preview
To me, Baylor is not very deep. They dont have great guys that come off the bench, but their starting 5 is one of the best in the country. In their most recent game against Oklahoma, all 5 of their starters scored in double digits. Its hard to narrow down to only a couple of players when your starters are that good, but I think BYU needs to focus on Jayden Nunn, Jalen Bridges, and RayJ Dennis.
Dennis is a given. He’s one of the best players in the country. He is exceptional at creating his own shot and BYU has to be ready to help on defense and then rotate.
Bridges destroyed BYU in their last meeting. He had 25 points and 3 3s. He is long and hard to guard. Just when you think hes not going to shoot a 3, he does and he makes them pretty regularly. But his first option is to drive the ball or get offensive rebounds and put it back.
Lastly is Nunn. He had 27 points in his last game against Oklahoma. He had 6 3s. Nunn likes to shoot the ball. When he is on, he is very hard to stop. BYU will have to limit his 3 point shooting.
Prediction
This game is REALLY hard to call. ESPN Analytics gives BYU a 65% chance to win the game. I think thats because they are at home and its hard for road teams to win at the Marriott Center. I REALLY want BYU to win this game. But I just dont know if they have enough offensive power to keep up with Baylor but I also dont think Baylor’s defense is top notch either.
This game also sets up a brutally hard next 3 games for BYU. They play at home against Baylor, at Kansas St, and then at Kansas. I am just hoping for 1 win in those 3 games. If BYU can pull 2, that would be great. I think I am going to take BYU in this one by 3. They are out for revenge and playing at home.
Other BYU Basketball News
BYU moved up 2 spots in the AP Poll. They are now ranked #19. If BYU can win on Saturday, I would expect them to move up maybe 3 spots or so.
Joe Lunardi currently projects BYU as a 5 seed against 12 seed Samford in Salt Lake. That would be a dream come true for BYU. If BYU can get a 4 or 5 seed, or if they fall farther and get an 8 or 9 seed, they would most likely be heading to Salt Lake which would be a huge advantage. Utah State is projected to be a 7 seed and Utah is projected as the “Last Team In” by Lunardi and has them as an 11 seed.
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